For over 10 months the Somali media, especially the social media has been awash with Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s (HSM) declaration of war on Al-Shabab (AS) terrorist group. There has never been such an open official declaration of war against AS in Somalia before even though AS has been ravaging Somalia for almost two decades. What is even more peculiar about the president’s alleged campaign against AS is the fact that the president wants to wage the war by very unconventional means. He wants to weaponize certain Somali clans in order to ostensibly fight the group and put them out of commission. This is very unusual, indeed very strange in multifactorial ways: The president is reportedly undertaking this monumental task without the necessary and the prerequisite consultations, without feasibility estimations, without even conducting basic rudimentary dialogue with said clans’s leaders and elders, without strategies or plans beyond supplying arms to the clans in the certain regions and without getting involved in the decision process the most important force in the country; the Somali National Army.
And so it goes. The president flooded armaments into the regional capitals and towns of Hirshabeeleand Gal-Mudug for designated clans. It is very odd and worth noting the most heavily AS-invested regions of the country, Jubba and Southwest regions, are not included in the purported campaign.
Before the war had even began, the president’s propagandists, typically comprised of few talking heads and bonafide clan sentimentalists took to the social media and whatever mediocre medium of communication that exists in Somalia in order to convince the nation the president had earnestly designed a clever means to defeat AS and demand every upstanding and patriotic Somali to support the campaign. In some cases the president’s supporters had declared victory before the alleged war had even begun. If you showed any reservation about the program let alone questioned it, you are automatically labeled “unpatriotic”, “AS sympathizer” or a “tribalist.” Some of the president’s supporters went so far as to label those who question the hastily ill-advised program as haters of the president’s clan, a very familiar ad hominem attack of the messenger rather than the message. “Only those who hate the president’s clan or the clans that are fighting AS oppose the righteous campaign to defeat AS” seem to be their favorite mantra.
While the president and his henchmen are busy labeling those with commonsense questions about his doomed-to-fail program as “detractors”, reportedly military grade weapons were distributed among ill-prepared Somali clans. We are told “The onslaught to defeat AS had began and we should all start rejoicing.” In the meantime, while mobilization of the country for the war is preached by Villa Somalia, no attempt is made by the administration to understand who AS actually is, what its weaknesses and strengths are, what its resources are, who its supports are or how far AS’s tentacles reach within the Somalia’s “XAARAAN-KU-NAAX” (Somali phrase for those who enriched themselves by virtue of lawlessness and the chaos that had prevailed in Somalia in the past 30 years) business sectors in Muqdisho or within Somalia at large is undertaken or forthcoming from the administration.
To understand how improbable it is to defeat AS terrorist group on a clan-based mechanism, one need to have some basic understanding of how Somali clans are structured and its dynamics.
Somali society comprises many clans that are related through family genetic tree. At any given point in time clans may have many or one designated or undesignated “Elder statesmen”, “Boqor”, “Islan”, “Ugaas” or “Suldaan”, etc. These quasi leaders may play an important role in clan affairs such as mediation of conflicts as in theft of property or disputes in ownership of properties, marriage disputes or homicides, etc. However, the leaders’ powers within clan structure are NOT at all defined and their advice or decision can only be effective when everyone agrees. Furthermore, any punishment rendered or remedy sought when transgressions are committed is not enforceable as there is no mechanism within the clan system or government to enforce the decision. Consequently, elders or Boqor’s decisions or advice are essentially useless as it is at the mercy of the collective will of the entire clan members. Important question to ask in this regard is “Can one actually achieve the collective will of the loosely associated members of any given clan?” The answer is emphatically NO. In addition, the guilty party CAN and OFTEN disagree with the decision. Additionally the guilty party’s clan or subclan may also side with him about the particular issue of concern, which if enforcement is tried within the clan system may lead to potential serious widespread intra-clan or inter-clan conflicts. The important point here is that Somali clan structure has no rules and regulations to flow and there is no hierarchy of leadership with defined responsibilities. Worse yet there is no mechanism to enforce such decisions as everyone is law unto themselves in today’s Somalia. Under this fundamental reality and without any basic training or dialogue, the president wants us to believe that these clans can be whipped into a cohesive force that can defeat AS, a task that is virtually impossible to accomplish. The whole project seems to be nothing more than make-believe charade. Parenthetically, Somalis fight like hell when there is real or a perceived threat to their clan interest, but this is not the case here.
The program has moved forward and the Somali clans with the aforementioned very loose and dynamic system are armed. No forethought, strategy or planning, at least none shared by the administration with the nation as to how success was going to be achieved. It’s also equally important to understand the obvious; the president can not technically order the clans to fight as the clans are ordinary nomadic civilians over which the president has no legal or administrative jurisdiction to exercise such a decree.
Ordinary, untrained, poor nomads, and the vast majority illiterate are asked to fight and defeat AS, one of most sophisticated modern terrorist group, which is undoubtedly well-resourced and well connected to some of the most powerful countries in world with their powerful institutions and godfathers for opinion-making and “manufacturing consent” (This is the title of the must-read book: Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman.)
Furthermore, its well-known fact that AS is not only deeply interwoven within these clans but also to a large extent is indispensable power in these regions. AS is the only local force that these clans look to for conflict resolutions and enforcement of judgment as there is no other power structure to fill the vacuum central Somalia’s government many decades ago. AS thrives on ransom it collects from local businesses and commercial enterprises and the local business sectors and middlemen in turn depend on AS for their safety. AS’ standing forces and recruits come from these clans.
AS’ standing fighters are estimated to be about 3,000 (the estimates vary wildly.) As such AS is NOT a military power, nor is AS known to be good in guerrilla warfare. AS’ terrorist power lies in its ability to be clandestine and strike when least expected with the greatest damage being done to the defenseless public in and around Muqdishu, the capital and one of the symbols for Somali nationalism. The element of surprise and the fear emanating from it in addition to the indiscriminate nature with which the heinous acts are committed are the basis of AS’ power. By virtue of the grotesque criminality of the act and the fear it creates among the psyche of the public and the important figures in the country are the real bases of AS’ power and control. The clans among which AS lives are not different.
More importantly, it’s becoming quite apparent now that AS’ power reach and control within the Somali society is far more than hitherto appreciated either by the Somali authorities or the public. AS is involved in every facet of Somali society either on the basis of bonafide belief of its mission or in subdued or bribed fashion. Somali society is well-aware that AS is involved in virtually all Somali institutions including security forces, government, civil society and educational institutions. It’s believed that the religious and business sectors are particularly heavy in AS membership either willingly or by other means. On that basis, it goes without saying that the president’s so-called strategy of fighting AS is DEAD and UTTER FAILURE from the start. If the president and his supporters are serious about defeating AS, they first need to have a basic understanding of what AS actually is. They need to conceptualize the group’s reach within Somali society. They need to exercise minimal curiosity — a modicum of intellectual capacity and sincerity, which is severely lacking.
Arming ill-prepared Somali clans who have neither the expertise nor the supporting infrastructure nor institutional discipline and demanding them to fight AS is incredibly irresponsible. The act is so callous, so preposterous it is nothing short of a criminal enterprise. In fact some critics reasonably argue the president’s purported campaign against AS is disingenuous and is obviously intended to deflect our attention off the real story: The theft of national treasury, misappropriations of funds, abject miss-management of country’s affairs on a daily basis and perhaps more importantly, the administration’s collusion with AS.
The president rose through the ranks of so-called civil society, in particular through the educational sector as a teacher during the most chaotic period of the capital city. President is also alleged to have had strong afflictions with the religious community, at least before he was surprisingly first elected in 2012. Many members of AS have been affiliated with the main religious groups in the country. The terrorist activities and foreign power involvements notwithstanding, the difference between “The Main” religious community and AS is semantics. With few exceptions, members of AS leadership have themselves been members of “The Main” religious community in their past and the president is not an exception in this regard.
Nothing could be further from the truth. HSM’s current administration is full of AS terrorists, who are known to have proudly shed the blood of hundreds of innocent defenseless Somalis. Some believe the figure is in the thousands. And yet the president had the temerity to name these bonafide terrorists to key consequential government positions. Mukhtar Roobow who goes by Abu Mansur (in Somalia these days, the religious fanatics love to flatter themselves by assuming old medieval Arab names) is the minister of religion and discipline in current administration. This man, who is one of the principal founders of AS, had proudly admitted to having ordered the death of hundreds of civilians while he was the head of AS. Mahad Salad is the new head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). The former head of NISA, Mr. Fahad Yaasiin holding classified file in his hands, have publicly stated in an interview that Mr. Salad is a well known AS who had been involved in the assassinations of scores of people including very important security and military personnels. Mr. Yaasiin stated in the interview he shared with the current president the damning evidence on Mr. Mahad before the president selected him to be the head of one of the most important security agency in the country. Mr. Yaasiin had closely worked with the president in the past and the two know each other very well. The president obviously had other plans and chose to ignore the indispensable advice. According to sources, there are many other terrorists holding high positions within the administration. This goes to show with whom the president’s loyalty lies with. It is a telltale sign of how badly off the rail things have gone in Somalia. The country’s affairs are run by such characters in such a brazen fashion with no accountability and public scrutiny of the administration and president’s atrocious and reprehensible destruction of what is left of Somalia. No sensibility or dignity is brought to bear on our behalf on the face of unspeakable carnage by this administration. The two most important nominal institutions, the lower and the upper parliaments, have already been bought and filled with puppets, informers and hucksters who after miserably failing in the West moved back to Somalia to collect their preordained prize. Reportedly these parliamentary members’ salaries range $3,000-4,000 a month while many of them and their families are also collecting awesome checks and food stamps from the U.S taxpayers coffers on a monthly basis. In the meantime, the average Somali citizen’s daily income is much less than $1.00 a day.
While the president is shamelessly conducting the country’s affairs in such a criminal fashion the public is silent and strangely expecting him to deliver for them. When one realizes the facts on the ground as they are, the real critical situation that the country is, and NOT the abjectly rudimentary deflection tactic by the the administration by claiming it wants to defeat AS, the clearly purposeful, goal-oriented destruction of Somalia that was set in motion many decades ago by the powers that be becomes painfully apparent. The lack of accountability by the public, the lack of awareness or sense of responsibility of Somali citizens when it is most needed also becomes equally apparent. Despite the foreign management and the willful design to confuse and demoralize Somali people, a game the West have crafted masterfully over centuries and used to destroy countless countries and cultures, some of the administration’s utter failure is partly due to its own sheer incompetence, lack of imagination and inability to critically think and plan. One needs to only look at the characters and intellectual capacities of those who are allowed to run the country’s affairs.
The selection of HSM and his cohorts including many parliamentarians, prominence of many other weak and morally bankrupt characters in our public arena and key positions, and in general the lack of good leadership in Somalia for decades certainty did not come about by accident. There is undoubtedly a heavy dose of purposeful foreign interference and dictation. (Evidence for this is overwhelming. Although the purpose of this article is not to enumerate the evidence it is suffice to mention examples: Book: Dirty Wars by Jeremy Scahill; The Video by Somali elder with the document in his hand; the former supreme NATO allied commander, Wesley Clark’s comments; the perpetual destructive actions of the Western powers against Somalia; the constant West’s covert and overt supports of individuals that are known to be existential threat to Somalia, etc.) Furthermore, evidence for West’s intended destruction and the intent to hold the country in a managed chaos (the ultimate goal of which being the total disintegration of Somalia) in the past several decades is supported by their sponsoring of the Empegathi treason and many other dog and bony shows before it, with the West’s right hand man, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia. For those who are honest about the situation or exercising minimal intellectual curiosity about Somalia in the past several decades, the evidence is unambiguous and overwhelming showing the West’s relentless and constant attempts to destroy Somalia as we know it, a viable nation. Somalia is not the first or the last nation the West’s zero-sum hegemonic power paradigm sought for destruction. It appears though that if the new BRICKS Movement and China’s and Russia’s attempts to curtail the West’s “RULE-BASED ORDER”, which basically means, the West and its transnational corporations own everything on earth and what they decide on any given issue can not be questioned by anyone else, there may be hope in the horizon for our planet and everyone that lives in it including West’s deprived citizen of their countries’s resources.
There is a slow but growing realization among many Somali intellectuals and activists, even some spheres of the public, that the West’s involvement in Somalia’s affairs is detrimental and it must be opposed. Today there is a hope for Somali resurgence as many young Somalis across the globe are realizing the very existence of their nation hinges on not letting the disastrous status quo to STAND. There is a growing census that the foreign-imposed 4.5 so-called constitution and parallel power regional autonomies are the evils lurking within, and without their destruction it is not possible to rebuild a viable state-nation. There is a hope that the painful degradation of Somali nation and the very fabric of “SOMALINESS” (the essence of Soomaalinimo — that which represents what it is to be Somali) must be vehemently resisted at all costs, for if this is allowed to go on, there will be nothing left of this once beautiful nation. This awareness seems to be catching on fire amongst our young, and it is really a very hopeful sign that perhaps slowly but surely we can throw away the trash program that pedaled in Villa Somalia today and put it where it belongs; the trash pin of history.
HMS and his cohorts are part and parcel of the cartel chaos profiteers in Muqdisho. Many business sectors, perpetrators of purported clan conflicts, religious communities and private schools all greatly benefit from the abject lawlessness that prevails throughout the country especially in the capital. The president came through the ranks in this community, whose interest is largely the same as that of AS; they all thrive through lawlessness. The former does not want accountability, rules and regulations, competition and payment of taxes. The latter obviously thrives in a chaotic and criminal-fested environment. Many including serious thinkers believe at the minimum thievery and other criminal acts including outright terrorism are not strange to the president since this has been the prevailing mode of operation through which one achieved one’s livelihood or economic miracle and fame during his ascent.
Many Somalis believe the president is AS in sheep clothes, and therefore the clan-based bandwagon to defeat AS is nothing more than a dog and pony show aimed to achieve two objectives: To effectively dismantle and discredit the Somali armed forces and to hasten the destruction and disintegration of Somalia.
Besides the false flag operation on AS, there is overwhelming evidence which clearly indicate the president is not genuine (there is always the possibility that the president is dumb enough to be just a rubber stamp of the program) and is clearly engaging in treasonous acts: The secret existential agreement with UAE, which was hastily done immediately after his SELECTION on May 15, 2022, is clear example. The notorious agreement EFFECTIVELY subordinates Somalia’s sovereignty, domestic and judicial affairs to UAE and it gives UAE the carte blanche to publicly accuse or arrest any Somali citizen whose activity the UAE doesn’t approve of. As well-documented in Yemen, the agreement effectively allows UAE to eliminate by any means it chooses including assassination of any Somali entity that It sees as threat to its program; the president’s secret agreement with Egypt’s dictator, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi with the intended goal of Egypt using Somalia as a proxy against Ethiopia; the president’s tacit approval of the massacres of the civilians in city of Laascaanood by Hargeysa’s separatist administration. The president didn’t even have the decency and the humanity to send a token of food and medicine to the civilians who have been under constant siege for weeks. This is as shameful as it gets. Fortunately though, thanks to the historically heroic people of Laascaanood and Sool, the separatist’s murderous campaign was defeated, proving to us that when Somali people are united they can not be defeated. Apart from LEGALLY allowing UAE to eliminate any Somali citizen or group that they see as a threat including assassinations and jailing, the agreement reportedly allows UAE to have a de facto control of all of the important sea ports of Somalia. This will hold Somalia hostage and deprive the Somali people from benefiting their country’s natural resources in the foreseeable future. Somali activists are also reporting HSM is allowing UAE to steal scott-free Somalia rare minerals and other natural resources in the Northeastern region of the country.
The importation of khat narcotic from Kenya which reportedly the president and his close confidants are personally benefiting is also another important action that shows this president’s true color.
Even if we give the president the benefit of the doubt about his purported campaign, we can not be expected to blindly support the president on this while being well aware of the administration’s ill preparedness for the war beyond sloganeering. There has never been a real attempt by this administration to gather basic information on AS. According to the current administration’s understanding of the situation, all that is needed is give some regional clans weapons and tell them to fight AS. If this is not most asinine, the most utterly irresponsible action the president could have taken, I don’t know what is. When the dust settles these clans will inevitably turn these weapons against each other. This will happen and it’s a matter of time before we will all see it in one form or the other. It is also a matter of time before these weapons show up in the black markets on sale.
In the meantime, parallel with the ill-advised AS campaign is another less noticed but more devastating war the president is waging against Somali Nation Army (SNA), a nascent institution that has been put together by Somalia’s previous administration. Despite many serious consequential mistakes, the Somali people owe a huge gratitude of appreciation for the previous president, Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” for his patriotism, recognition of the enemies of Somalia, ability to start rebuilding a viable SNA and national espionage agency (NISA) in a very short period despite immense difficulties and powerful oppositions. The actions of the SNA and NISA were bearing tangible results for the country in the security sector and the revival and the confidence-building of the public while the enemy including the current president were severely undermining the efforts. During his campaign for the presidency, the current went on a relentless campaign of tarnishing the reputation of the SNA and NISA with repeated outlandish accusations. The president’s actions and utterances were truly reprehensible. Unfortunately, the former president, Mr. Farmaajo, did not have the courage to be decisive and apparently did not comprehend the gathering danger, thereby allowing HSM and his nasty treasonous cohorts to fester their onslaught of tearing the country apart. Presumably Mr. Farmaajo did not appreciate how much of an existential threat HSM and his henchmen represented to the country, a fact that was self-evident and hard to miss. HMS was not held accountable for his dangerous transgressions, really an inexcusable grave mistake by the previous administration and the outcome is as clear as it was predictable.
Immediately after his election the president went to work dismantling the SNA, either by sacking or according to sources, outright targeting for physical elimination the SNA leaders with good qualities. The president also divided the army along the clan lines. The remaining army leadership and rank and file saw the writing on the wall and simply dissolved away in droves. Similar and perhaps more sinister actions were taken against NISA by the president and his notorious head of the agency, Mr. Mahad Salad, including targeted assassinations of those who were suspected declaring their loyalty to the country and the mission of the agency, rather than swearing an oath of allegiance to the president and the agency’s new leader — Talk about the fox guarding the hen house. The result is as predictable as expected; complete insecurity throughout the country especially the capital city, Muqdisho, with the civilian blood being shed indiscriminately on a daily basis while the president is busy flying chartered private planes signing away Somalia’s sovereignty and its natural resources. A very sad situation indeed.
And the carnage goes on unabated. The current state of affairs in Somalia is so grave it’s hard to imagine the country continuing to function or even exist if the situation is not somehow reversed without a delay. However, it’s quite unlikely the situation will be reversed any time soon as there is no viable opposition, functioning parliament, organized civil society or a critical public awareness and sense of patriotism. So far not a single leader is on the scene or expected to be on the horizon to fill the void, a leader who understands the calamity of the situation, and has the courage to stand up and point the finger, a necessary first step. Worse yet, Ethiopia, Somalia’s great nemesis seems to be resorting to its old destructive behavior after its energetic prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, apparently sorted out his differences with the West, most importantly the United States of America, after later’s campaign to topple him using TPLF terrorist group failed miserably. It’s a pity Somalia has not had (and this is not at all by accident) leadership with skills and political aptitude to understand how important the brief lull from Ethiopia’s interference was. This brief period of reprieve from Ethiopia’s interference in Somalia’s internal affairs afforded Somalia an opportunity to put its house in order. The opportunity came and seems to have evaporated based on the recent events including Mr. Abiy Ahmed and the U.S cozying up to each other. This really portends a troubling development for Somalia.
This is written by Hussein W. Egal, MD, a practicing emergency room physician, who is also a Somali political activist and intellectual and pays close attention to Somalia’s current situation.
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