Hussein Sheikh-Ali, Somalia’s National Security Advisor makes some outlandish claims about the renewed intensified violence in the country. Claims were made in a Twitter Space Town Hall organized by the Somali BBC.
Some of Hussein Sheikh-Ali claims are outright false. Others are erroneous in strategic thinking. The combination of false claims and wrong strategy strengthened Al-Shabaab. This is the exact opposite of the government’s stated goal.
One of the most obvious false claims Hussein Sheikh-Ali made was about weapons shipment from the capital Mogadishu to Mudug and Galgaduud region. He claimed shipped weapons were purchased in the open market by clans.
This is a pants-on-fire falsehood. For example, on September 14 and 19, 2022, two plane loads of arms shipment took off from Mogadishu destined for Dhuusamareeb and Adado. These efforts were coordinated by Interior Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi and National Security and Intelligence Agency head Mahad Salad.
Some of the clan militias had been brandishing some of the fresh weapons on social media. The problem is that militias are not fighting against the stated target. Clan militia declared war against regional President Ahmed Abdi Karie (Qoor Qoor).
Qoor Qoor is a long-time political foe of both Fiqi and Salad. He recently extended his stay in power and his foes are determined to remove him by force.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali himself accused Qoor Qoor of being an obstacle to the administration’s plan. In the Twitter Town Hall, Husein Sheikh-Ali said Qoor Qoor had prevented his sub-clan of Saleebaan to join the fight.
Understanding these political dynamics and disputes is important. The reason is that differences and the underlining political pitched battles establish ulterior motives for the government arming clan militia.
Furthermore, Somalia has been under a UN weapons embargo for many years. Only the government is allowed to purchase the types of weapons and ammunition that are being shipped from Mogadishu.
Moreover, the current administration is in power for approximately five months. Open markets like that of Shooting Sky (Cir Toogte) to purchase a large number of weapons have ceased operations many years ago. It is impossible markets have re-emerged quickly with sufficient supplies.
The political ulterior motive combined with characteristics of open markets for weapons makes Hussein Sheikh Ali’s claim patently false. It is an unparallel level of deception.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali defined Al-Shabaab as an insurgent. However, he rejected the group’s alliances with Al-Qaida as a strategic error. More specifically, he claimed that the decision detached the group from the local population. It is that decision he argued that had led to the current uprising.
Hussein Sheikh Ali is wrong in his assessment. This assessment ignores Somalia’s status as a major battleground for proxy wars.
Somalia has been a global battleground for proxy wars for some time now. Hussein Sheikh-Ali’s boss, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made it worst by inviting new participants such as Egypt.
Almost all insurgent groups go global for longevity. In this particular case, the group obtained access to resources and connections to governments that have different geopolitical interests in Somalia’s proxy war.
Seeking foreign backing is the default position for warring parties in Somalia. Clans pursue this as well as regional administrations.
Somalis coined a jargon to describe the government’s international partners. They called it the 6th clan. This led to a belief that political survivability in Somalia hinges on access to foreign arms.
Insurgent groups are no different in this regard. Therefore, the group going global did not make it weaker as Hussein Sheikh-Ali claimed but quite the contrary.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali was able to point out some gains for the government in Hiiraan region. But he failed to provide a concrete plan to sustain them in the long term.
The ability to sustain gains is concerning to most observers. Hussein Sheikh-Ali was asked how this is different from similar offensives in the past where a combination of regional troops, clan militia, and federal government seesaw control of villages with the insurgent.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali gave inspiring uprising from clans as a key feature difference this time around. But in the same vein failed to provide a demobilization plan for clan militias.
Unfortunately, Hussein Sheikh-Ali is only interested in political pitched battles that can only be sustained with outlandish claims. State building is a completely different matter.
Author is a Technology Entrepreneur and long-time civic leader. He tweets @fuguni. Follow him for more in-depth analysis.
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